Joseph de Maistre, the French philosopher said, “Every nation gets the government it deserves”. Look at the UK, look at Trump and look at Hong Kong.
With the elections over both, the black swan floated away, and the Black Elephant trotted out of the city. Well for now, at least. But, what’s next for Hong Kong?
The famed book about Black Swans by Nassim Taleb, Hong Kong qualified for his Black Swan scenario. But before everyone celebrates having a yippee moment let’s reflect on round one before round two is gonged.
We still got the Black Elephant, the obvious monsters in the proverbial the room that goes ignored. We need to add on the Black Marlin (below the surface) that breaches the surface to escape his tormentors if caught, deal with the Black Hornets (usually a large swarm), and their distant cousin the Black Killer whale (the one that really kills you, not Willy).
In Hong Kong the presence of these creatures was loud, visible and were missed. If anything defines an intelligence failure by the Chinese overlords, well this is it.
Neither the SAR administration nor the Hong Kong Police Force, one of the oldest in Asia can cover itself in much glory. They missed that Elephant, the swan and the killer whale. Congrats to the opposition and the intelligence behind them.
The next evolution is in 2020. Washington, London, and Germany, the old colonists and white preachers should be proud, popping the corks. It has promoted not democracy but a troubling lot of leftist anarchist which feel now truly empowered to argue that violence does work. But if it works in Hong Kong, it could work in New York, Berlin, and Brussels.
Both, the administration of Carrie Lam and the blue thin line suffered from a serious dose of hubris and cognitive bias lacking the organizational nimbleness needed to recognize and comprehend the threats. The Chinese propaganda of “crushing bones …etc.”, sounded more like Stalin’s 1933 speech. The guy who come up with the speech should take lessons in modern linguistics. No-one took it seriously and the Chinese missed the pulse of the city.
The riots are squarely responsibility of the oldest police force. It is yet unclear if officers in the top echelon are replaced, retire, usually ending up in some lucrative “security business consultancy” or just muddle along. The faith of the leadership is equally uncertain. It always claimed to be the apolitical voice in Hong Kong, a “professional” force.
Well boys and girls, you missed that one and do not be surprised in a few months’ time you are retired. The thin blue line has eggs and paintballs on their faces. The same can be said about the overlords from Beijing. The political intelligence was soundly defeated by a clever plan of cunning and disguise. A tip to the hat to the other side.
Missing the massive elephant in the room, yes, the protesters exist, the whale lurking near the shores, yes, they do want the economy to collapse, eat your young and kill the unsuspected in the offices of the high table. Maybe by retiring incompetent replacing them with a more competent leadership, duly needed the damage to Hong Kong can be prevented next time. The strategic aim of toppling a government seems the preferred option. It was a coup through the ballet box, not visible but a coup, nevertheless.
The digital actors funded by well documented funds has achieved the tactical and strategic victory over a bumbling administration and a less than effective blue thin line. In typical fashion the lack of reaction can be anticipated. Both Asian officialdom and command leaders do what in crisis? Nothing. Typically, the paralyzed leadership waited until it is too late. Cultural and leadership incompetence was replaced with action, leadership on the protester side, and a networked nimbleness of lateral thinking. Violence as an election strategy. It sure worked.
What does all of this have to do with Hong Kong? Everything!
To make things more complicated, let’s review what they missed. Loving complexities, let’s throw in vanguardism, neo-socialism and good old Marxism, extremist eco-movements, the Deep Green Resistance, the eco-media, the Black Bloc, the global left populist politics of the left and foreign interests through organizations like Gene Sharp’s Einstein Institute, so brilliantly developed what he calls, an “alternative to combat”.
The treatise of 198-steps to overthrow a government, the National Endowment Fund and the alliances funding the activities of the so-called eco-philanthropies which in 2014 were sanctioned by the U.S. Congress as serving a leftist agenda under the banner of environmental protection, and radical gay and lesbian movement (yes they do exist and are not some political taboo), the “Lennon flag” which shows up in Chile (!) after it was held by Denise Ho, a member of the Hong Kong elite, but actually grew up in Canada, a sparkle of lateral thinking and predictive forecast and the incompetence of corporate officers, policy and intelligence agencies. Finally, food for thought. Green, Peace and People. If a sentence has green, peace and people in it, it surely is not green, not for peace and certainly not for the people.
What is the outcome? The mess in Hong Kong, and early signs of this thing is heading to Singapore. Uncomfortably, but the signs are here, and it requires a strong contrarian and critical view, some say eccentric outlook. But what if this view is right…?
Black bloc & use of radicals for political objectives.
The rise of the Black Bloc as the political bogeyman has now one problem. What is coming next? Is Hong Kong drifting into alternative reality of leftist justifiable extremism? How is justice served to a 70-year old bystander who was killed by a brick thrown by the all-so-democratic protester flat out killing the men? His crime he stood on the street taking a picture or video. People killed him because he did not agree with the sociopathic narratives Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, and the lot. It is flat out hatred for your fellow men. Nothing patriotic or liberating about that.
In the United States people get shot by the police for less. In Hong Kong the police so far went silent. Why has none of the so-called leaders like Joshua Wong, never spoken up rejecting violence? Because it does not serve the cause. Revolutions need responsible leaders. Not some repeating cranky grammar phone sounding beatnik who is still in delayed puberty. Try to get a job and earn a living instead.
First call by Wong, “we want to elect our Chief Executive” is the signal of things yet to come. And warning to all the real revolution will come, 2019 was just the overture. Hong Kong is still on the cusp of deep political uncertainties for 2020.
A final word of caution. If Joshua Wong and his clan is the best that Hong Kong can offer, we should be concerned. Real concerned.